Statlog - Case Study
TITRE de la catégorie?
Leveraging macroeconomics to increase the accuracy of demand predictions
Context
- The manufacturing of clinker, the main ingredient of Portland cement, relies on a complex supply chain involving massive amounts of raw materials that poses logistical challenges to transport and to store.
- Once clinker is grinded to produce cement, it has a relatively short shelf life. Over production can thus leads to costly product loss. On the other hand, under production can lead to missed opportunities.
- A precise estimation of the demand for cement is critical to optimize the supply chain and to meet the demand as precisely as possible.
- A group of manufacturers was seeking to simplify and improve their forecast models of regional cement consumption.
Approach
- The manufacturing of clinker, the main ingredient of Portland cement, relies on a complex supply chain involving massive amounts of raw materials that poses logistical challenges to transport and to store.
- Once clinker is grinded to produce cement, it has a relatively short shelf life. Over production can thus leads to costly product loss. On the other hand, under production can lead to missed opportunities.
- A precise estimation of the demand for cement is critical to optimize the supply chain and to meet the demand as precisely as possible.
- A group of manufacturers was seeking to simplify and improve their forecast models of regional cement consumption.
Results
49%: The reduction of the average absolute error in cement growth forecasted compared to the previous model (for the region with the largest consumption of cement).
66,73766,737 metric tonnes of cement: The average annual accuracy in the forecasted consumption gained over the validation period.
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